The 3 types of uncertainty we must deal with

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The different types of uncertainty confront people with situations in which there is no control or even the possibility of foresight.

Psychologist Paul KJ Han has cataloged three types of uncertainty: probability, ambiguity and complexity. This is an interesting contribution, since we almost always talk about uncertainty simply, but the forms it takes in certain circumstances are not specified.

Each type of uncertainty is referred to the source or cause of that state.. It is clear that uncertainty does not always obey the same factor. In general, it has to do with a condition in which there is no certainty about the development or consequences of something, but this absence of knowledge can be due to different reasons.

All types of uncertainty are an unavoidable part of anyone’s life. Although This lack of certainty can cause concern or even anxiety., the reality is that it is present in almost everything we do, although sometimes we are under the illusion that it is not. Let’s look at each of the modalities in greater detail.

“Do not look now for the answers that you cannot understand because you are not prepared to live them. The key is to live it all. Live the questions. Maybe one day in the future you will find the answer, gradually and without realizing it.”.

-Rainer Maria Rilke-

1. By probability, one of the types of uncertainty

The first type of uncertainty is what is called “probability”. Is related to those situations in which it is not possible to weigh the level of risk of a situation or decision. This is generally because many variables act at the same time and it is impossible to predict consequences and results.

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An example of this type of uncertainty could be a serious illness. There is information about the pathology and even a general prognosis for it, but there are no certainties regarding how the body could react to treatment. Nor is the way it will develop definitive.

The most common thing is that in these circumstances people allow themselves to be carried away by the optimistic bias.. The idea is often assumed that in the end the possible negative effects will not occur, although there is no real basis to affirm this. In situations like this, it is important to also consider possible negative scenarios.

2. Due to ambiguity

The second type of uncertainty, according to Paul KJ Han, is ambiguity. It corresponds to those cases in which there are doubts about the development or effect of some situation or decision because there is a lack of reliable information about. What there is is incomplete, confusing or not totally reliable.

A typical situation in this case could be the use of an experimental drug. There is no certainty of its effectiveness, nor is there fully corroborated information on its possible side effects. So, while there is an estimate of risk, it could vary significantly at some point.

In a situation like this, The ideal is to investigate as much as possible and try to gather the maximum information available, hopefully from diverse and reliable sources.. Although the information gap will not be completely covered, it is possible to some extent to reduce the margin of uncertainty and make a more responsible decision. It is also important to calculate the risk and weigh the benefit. A very high risk or a very low benefit tips the balance towards refraining from doing something.

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3. Due to complexity

The third and last type of uncertainty is complexity. In these cases What there is is a difficult problem to understand, because it is a new or unusual situation and with which there is not much experience. It causes the most intense feeling of uncertainty, as it exposes many vulnerabilities.

A common example may be damage to a computer. Suddenly it doesn’t work and the already known correctives are applied, but it is not enough. Another illustrative example was the 2020 crisis. Such a new situation perplexed the entire world and for several months there was no clear direction to follow.

In the face of this type of uncertainty, it is important to remain calm, above all. Taking emotional distance from these types of situations is very appropriate to see them in perspective. and begin to figure out what is happening. It is also necessary to get used to the idea that the solution will not be immediate and that it is important to investigate and collect data in this regard.

All types of uncertainty cause some degree of concern because human beings are given to “playing it safe,” even though this does not actually exist. A smart perspective is to accept the inevitability of uncertainty and learn to deal with it.