Hindsight bias: what does it consist of?

Cognitive biases cause our perception and interpretation of reality to deviate, and make our judgments or interpretations of it inaccurate or illogical. One of them is retrospective bias, which involves thinking that we could have avoided certain events once they have already happened.

The fundamental characteristic of this bias, which will allow us to understand it better, is precisely the moment in which it appears: after an event, and never before.

So, It appears when certain things have happened and we think: “Wow, I knew that would happen!”, or “I could have avoided it!” However, this perception of predictability and avoidability is biased, false and disproportionately increased. Because? Because before the event we would never have thought that we could have prevented it (or if we had, it would never have been to such a high degree).

What are cognitive biases?

Although we believe that our interpretation of reality is accurate or reliable, in many cases, this is not the case. And this is because there are so-called cognitive biases, a type of psychological phenomenon that leads us to make illogical or inaccurate interpretations of reality. It is, in a way, a mental deviation that distances us from “objective” reality.

Thus, Cognitive biases can be defined as errors that people manifest when interpreting reality.. They appear unconsciously, automatically and systematically. These are erroneous perceptions that we have of things, which make us make false or inaccurate judgments. One of these biases is retrospective bias, which we will learn about throughout the article.

Useful for marketing or advertising?

Therefore, cognitive biases lead us to make mistakes, and can even influence our memories, our thoughts and beliefs, our perception and our judgments. These biases can be benefits in areas such as marketing, advertising or business strategy..

Thus, if these sectors know these biases in human beings, they can take advantage of them to “manipulate” people and make them believe what they want. In fact, for this reason, more and more neuromarketing strategies and studies are being promoted, for example, because knowing the human mind allows us to boost sales.

Hindsight bias: what is it and how does it work?

Hindsight bias, also known as hindsight bias, is a cognitive bias. It is defined as that overestimation of the predictability of something happening after it has happened. That is, it involves seeing things more clearly or evidently once they have already happened. In other words: It has to do with the belief that something was very obvious or very easy to prevent once it has already happened..

Some examples so that we can better understand retrospective bias are: “Wow, this was coming” (once it has already happened), or “I knew it would happen.” But they are thoughts that we do not have before the event or event happens, and that is precisely why we are talking about a bias, because it only appears after the situation, and makes us believe that “we could have foreseen it” (when in reality it is not). So).

We can summarize hindsight bias in a idiom: In retrospect it is easy to see! Through this bias, people have the false belief that certain results, often in critical situations, are more predictable than they actually were.

Origin of hindsight bias

Hindsight bias, or retrospective prejudice, is a term from cognitive psychology. Cognitive psychology is that area of ​​psychology responsible for the study of cognition, that is, the mental processes involved in knowledge (attention, memory…).

The first research that was carried out systematically, with retrospective bias, was in 1975. It was developed by researcher Baruch Fischhoff. Through his research and subsequent studies, it was concluded that this bias is more complex than others (and has deeper levels than others).

Elements of Hindsight Bias

Although Fischhoff initially defined it as an indivisible whole, it was later discovered that it was a phenomenon that could be broken down into sub-elements. One of them is the overestimation of the real predictability of an event, already described above. Another is the possibility that this bias could falsify correct recall of estimates made before the event.

That is, it can modify the memory we had before the appearance or development of the event. These two elements described can appear simultaneously and reinforce retrospective bias.

Finally, We find as another of its components a feeling of inevitability after the event. (believing that we couldn’t avoid it, when it has already happened). In summary, we find that retrospective bias is made up of the following elements:

An increased sense of inevitability after the event (believing that it could not be avoided).Increased sense of predictability after the event (believing that it could be prevented)Distortions in memory.

A contradictory bias?

If we look closely, two of these elements are paradoxical: on the one hand, the belief that the event could not be avoided (inevitability), and on the other, the belief that it could be prevented. This can happen, since Hindsight bias is a paradoxical bias, and as suggested by Blank et al. (2008) in one of their studies, their creation processes are unconscious.

This would explain why sometimes, after an event occurs, we simultaneously perceive it as more inevitable but also as less predictable than before it took place. Cognitive biases are often difficult to identify and understand, precisely because of these types of “contradictions.”

Our mind is not perfect: know it

And you, have you ever experienced hindsight bias? If you stop to think about it, I’m sure you’ve experienced it at some point in your day-to-day life. Our perception and interpretation of reality, as we have seen, is not perfect.and much less accurate.

This is the origin of many errors when we make decisions, when we make judgments or when we draw conclusions. Although we deviate from logical or valid solutions many times, knowing these types of cognitive biases can help us increase our effectiveness when drawing conclusions or making decisions in multiple aspects and areas of our lives.

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